With a 3-1 record, Tampa Bay will lace up the cleats for their first divisional matchup of the season.

After dispatching of the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, the Tampa Bay Bucs get to kick off the NFL’s week five action with a Thursday night divisional bout against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are the first NFC South opponent on Tampa Bay’s schedule this season. Atlanta is already 1-0 in the division after picking up a dramatic win against the Saints in week four. This will be Tampa’s first matchup against Atlanta in the Kirk Cousins era, so—

How can the Bucs win this game?

The Tampa Bay Bucs have to play this game on their terms. The Falcons haven’t had the success they likely envisioned when they inked Kirk Cousins to a near $200-million contract in the offseason. Atlanta is 2-2, but could easily be 0-4. On the flip side, they did have the defending Super Bowl champs on the ropes a few weeks ago and could just as easily be 3-1. Unfortunately for Arthur Blank, the team’s shiny, new investment (Kirk Cousins) has only had one turnover-free game so far this season and his four touchdowns (in four games) perfectly match his quadruplet of interceptions.

Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The Bucs, with Todd Bowles running their defense, have only ran up against Kirk Cousins twice, both times as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins has yet to play a clean game against Bowles and the Bucs— Tampa needs to push for the continuation of that trend on Thursday night. The Bucs, astoundingly, have not lost a single game where they’ve won the turnover battle in nearly a calendar year. On a short week, Tampa Bay’s ability to take care of the football while taking it away from Kirk Cousins can be enough to decide the outcome.

How can the Bucs lose this game?

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Defeat at the line of scrimmage is the fastest way for Tampa Bay to ensure a loss this week. The Atlanta Falcons have a stomp-you-out backfield, led by Bijan Robinson— The Falcons are 9th in the NFL in yards per carry. Despite their success on the ground, Atlanta’s favored the air, rushing just 90 times on the year so far (sixth fewest in the league).

In the Bucs’ lone loss this year, they were out-rushed by more than 40 yards and allowed 7 sacks. That kind of line play is what could doom their chances of starting 1-0 in the division.

Defensively, Todd Bowles must make it a priority to force Atlanta’s offense into a one dimensional gameplan where the Bucs’ pressure can cause mistakes.

On offense, The Bucs have to protect Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has been sacked 14 times in the last three weeks. When the Bucs’ offensive line has kept rushers off of him he’s operated at an MVP level. In games where they have surrendered two or less sacks, Tampa’s franchise quarterback has seven total touchdowns and 0 turnovers— Keep Mayfield clean and in rhythm, and thr Bucs should light up the scoreboard in Atlanta.

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