After a 10-7 season, Tampa Bay has earned a spot in the 2024 postseason.

The Tampa Bay Bucs finished their season 10-7. Coming off their bye week the team went 6-1 in their final seven games, finding momentum as they tore through the closing stretch of their schedule. Last year, the Bucs found themselves in a similar situation and their Wildcard weekend performance was one of glory.

Against the Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay combined three Baker Mayfield touchdowns, a safety of Jalen Hurts, and the defeat of the famed ‘tush push’ to send the Eagles home with a 32-9 loss. This season, will also feature Tampa Bay versus an NFC East opponent in round one of the playoffs, Tampa will square off with Washington, so—

How can the Bucs win this game?

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Get the crowd at Raymond James chanting ‘Bucky! Bucky! Bucky!’ For the Bucs’ offense, the season has been a resounding success. One of the largest areas of pride has been the group’s rejuvenated run game. Led by Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay as catapulted the worst rushing attack in the league to a top-5 unit. Despite having a quarterback who produced at a level few in NFL history have been able to touch –One that would befuddle any pundit stuck in a 2019 narrative– the Bucs shouldn’t lean on Baker Mayfield and the passing game.

2024 has been an exciting year for Washington. The Commanders began a rebuild and have found themselves significantly ahead of schedule, winning 12 games with a rookie quarterback in Dan Quinn’s first year with the organization. While Jaden Daniels has been a permier catalyst for the franchise, the team at large still has holes.

The Washington Commanders‘ defense has let up 2,337 yards rushing this season. That number equates out to 137.5 yards per game and ranks them as the NFL’s third-worst rushing defense.

Against the pass, Dan Quinn’s defense has a different résumé. Allowing 189.5 yards per game, the group is statistically quite formidable. That mark is good for third-best league-wide.

Tampa Bay’s 2024 offensive output dictates that they’re capable of beating opponents any way they choose— Top-5 in passing and rushing yards (Only offense in the league with those metrics). With Washington’s defense being so one-dimensionally vulnerable, the Bucs should look to attack that weakness— Get the Ball to Bucky Irving and let the offense, the team, and Tampa’s entire stadium rally around the explosive rookie.

How can the Bucs lose this game?

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Start slow. The Tampa Bay Bucs have been on a hot streak, however, the coldest part of the heater they’ve been on has been their slow starts— Especially on defense. Todd Bowles’ group has been hit or miss this season. With sacks being the exception, Tampa’s defense has been statistically maimed or at least kept off balance for the better part of 2024.

How much of that can be attributed to starting slow?

Since the bye week (7 games), Tampa Bay has allowed 119 points. Of those 119 points, only 26 have been scored in the second halves of those contests. Statistics can be skewed and inside of each game their is a different story/scoring summary with its own unique circumstances surrounding the outcomes, however, in the seven weeks since Tampa’s bye the Bucs have played in all different styles of games. The team’s been in tightly contested battles that have drawn out drama and suspense late into the fourth quarter, they’ve dabbled in an overtime finish, they’ve played games from behind and they’ve also mixed in dominating performances where their opponents were never really in the game.

The Bucs’ ability to change course and turn it on in the second halves of games as the season has progressed is a stat pulled from a large enough sample size to be credible. Even still, the Bucs will now be matched up against postseason competition. Each week, from this Sunday moving forward the Bucs will play the best the league has to offer and muddling their way through the half just to set themselves up for a heroic third and fourth quarter, may not be the most viable tactic.

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