Mike Evans led the league in receiving touchdowns in 2023, Cynthia Frelund does not expect a repeat performance in 2024.
Many NFL fans and pundits alike expect the Tampa Bay Bucs, as a whole, to take a step backward this season. Why would the production of their star wide receiver be any different?
A year ago, Mike Evans was in training camp learning a new quarterback— following the departure of Tom Brady. Evans and that new quarterback, Baker Mayfield, went on to boast impressive statistics as the season played out. Each would wind up having one of the best seasons of their career. Evans’ 1,255 yards represent the third-most he’s had as a professional. His 79 catches were also the third-most he has totaled and he scored 13 touchdowns— a number Evans has only topped one time in his career (14 in 2021). After year one, as a tandem, it feels very safe to say Mike Evans is comfortable catching passes from Baker Mayfield.
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Post their impressive 2023 campaign, both Evans and Mayfield re-signed with Tampa Bay this offseason. Despite their eye-catching numbers from last year, Cynthia Frelund— an NFL data analyst— has her 2024 projections of Evans and Mayfield regressing. While discussing CeeDee Lamb (the player she believes will lead the league in receiving touchdowns this year, dethroning Evans and Tyreek Hill), she broke down her expected production for Evans this season—
“I’d also like to highlight one player in the list just below. Mike Evans, he of the 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons, appears to be flying somewhat under the radar… Considering a number of factors — increased chemistry with Baker Mayfield in their second season together, Chris Godwin moving back to the slot full time, Tampa Bay facing the competitiveness of a first-place schedule — I believe Evans’ red-zone prowess will indeed translate to a healthy number of scores [9].”
While her wording comes across as very complimentary, Frelund shaved not one, two, or three, but four touchdowns off of Mike Evans’ 2023 total. A projection of nine touchdowns certainly does not qualify as disrespect, however, it is worth making the notation that should Tampa’s beloved superstar reach the end zone just nine times that would be his second-lowest output since 2019.
Mike Evans currently sits at 94 career receiving touchdowns, putting him—fittingly— 13th all-time. Subscribing to Frelund’s calculations, Evans would finish 2024 with 103— that mark would place him in the top-10 of NFL history.
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