Should Bucs’ fans appreciate Todd Bowles more?
Tampa Bay Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles is as debatable a coach as the NFL has to offer. Bowles, in his career, has been the leader of three separate organizations. He got his start with a brief stint as the interim head coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2011, coaching just three games— The Dolphins were victorious in two of them. It wouldn’t be until 2015 when Bowles got an opportunity to work without an interim tag— The New York Jets, fresh off a 4-12 season, signed up Bowles to pilot a fresh start. That effort was successful in the short-term. The Jets went 10-6 in his first season. The move, however, ultimately netted out as a neutral when Bowles’ fourth season with the organization resulted in the same 4-12 record the team had prior to his arrival. Bowles crashing the Jets back to four wins led to his departure from Gotham.
His struggles in New York led him to Tampa where he shined, as he is known to do, as a defensive coordinator. From 2019-2021 Bowles took Tampa Bay’s previously woeful defense and provided instant credibility. The unit grew to be one of the league’s best and peaked in Super Bowl 55 when they pinned down Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and a Kansas City Chiefs’ offense that was previously thought to be unstoppable.
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Less than five seasons after New York exiled him, Bowles had a Super Bowl ring and a another chance. Tampa Bay, in slightly awkward fashion, handed him a promotion. After the 2021 season, Tom Brady announced his retirement, which set the stage for his un-retirement — indirectly (or directly) prompting Bruce Arians to retire with the stipulation that he’d be able to select his replacement — enter Todd Bowles. Details aren’t public knowledge, but the Bucs had seemingly traded another year of Bucco Bruce for another year of Tampa Tom and that put Todd Bowles in the driver’s seat.
Two seasons in Tampa Bay has seen Todd Bowles ping pong-ing between the hot seat and the postseason. His ‘odd’ entry into the position certainly has potentially played a part in fans’ lack of embrace for their team’s head coach — Fans will be fans. No matter the circumstances of his hiring, the question remains: Is Todd Bowles underrated?
There are two years, or seven years, of data to help provide some framework for an answer to this question.
Fair is fair and trying to draw any conclusions out of Bowles’ three game interim-sample with the Miami Dolphins from 2011 is not. That leaves the analysis to Bowles’ tenure with the New York Jets and then his last two seasons as Tampa Bay’s head man.
The sample size is sizable, six years as an NFL head coach puts you at the helm of an NFL franchise for nearly 100 games. Still, Bowles’ résumé really can satisfy multiple narratives.
“Todd Bowles should be on the hot seat entering next season!”
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Todd Bowles has a losing record as a head coach in the National Football League. That is a pretty bad statistic to have attached to your name. In 98 games, Bowles has 41 wins. 41 wins versus 57 losses isn’t the largest gap, but it is definitive enough to be held against him. This is not a coach who’s been on the sidelines, leading a rebuild for two seasons, and has a 14-20 record with a lot of promise — This is a coach with six full seasons of game days under his headset.
Bowles’ run with the New York Jets was marred with losing. After a 10-6 debut season, the Jets never won more than five games in any subsequent season of his tenure. Two years in Tampa Bay and Bowles’ record is exactly .500 — 17-17. His .500 record includes a losing season with the National Football League’s greatest passer, a stout wide receiver duo, and talented (albeit aging) players littered across his defense. When Todd Bowles took over, Tampa still had quite a few elite players left on the roster from the team’s triumphant days of 2020-2021 and Bowles has used those pieces to claim two division titles.
Hard to argue with the success of back-to-back division titles until you zoom in on the specifics of the seasons — an 8-9 finish followed by a 9-8 finish. Those seasons pale in comparison to Tampa’s 24 wins from the two years prior, under Bruce Arians.
There is a very legitimate argument to be made that while on paper Bowles is having success he is mostly just riding off the coattails of his predecessor’s achievements and benefiting from coaching in a weak division — That without Licht’s players and Arians setting the stage for him he would still very much be the same coach he was in New York.
“Todd Bowles hasn’t been ELITE, but he’s actually been pretty good.”
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If you’re willing to chalk his time with the New York Jets up to the Jets being the Jets, then there is an argument to be made that in two seasons Todd Bowles has done some impressive things. He is currently coaching a team that has qualified for the playoffs four consecutive years and he is responsible for two of them. He has taken home a division crown every year he’s been Tampa’s coach and he has even had immense impact inside the team’s divisional matchups. Throughout recent history, the New Orleans Saints have been the biggest thorn in the side of the Tampa Bay Bucs (most of the NFC South) and Bruce Arians was 0-6 in the regular season against New Orleans (1-6 including playoffs). Under Bowles, the Bucs are 3-1 against the Saints and undefeated in New Orleans.
In 2022, Bowles’ introductory season, the Bucs were anything but terrific. A popular take was that due to the star names on Tampa’s roster the Bucs handed Todd Bowles a Ferrari of a football team. The 2022 Bucs might’ve been a Ferrari, but the car had two flat tires, needed an all new interior, a car wash, and a fresh coat of paint.
Tom Brady was playing, but the G.O.A.T. was not. Brady put the helmet on but it never really looked like he came out of retirement. From August onward, Brady’s interests and activities outside of football grabbed headlines while the team suiting up for games looked lacking. Lacking in energy, lacking in passion, motivation, just overall life. When a team lacks drive or inspiration the leadership of the team is often called into question— Head coaches are prone to taking the fall, however, a team that has a quarterback with the stature of Tom Brady, who is openly displaying a lack of commitment or focus (or at least actions that can be interpreted as such) without facing any discipline, is likely to have a difficult time avoiding the urge to follow suit. Even still, the 2022 Bucs stumbled across the finish line before anyone else in the NFC South, snagging a division title banner and while it may not have looked pretty Tampa made their way to the playoffs. Following the 2022 postseason, Tom Brady officially retired (again) and Todd Bowles’ first true offseason as the team’s head coach began.
His first task— Replace an irreplaceable legend, while staying competitive, without using any cap space. Jason Licht handed Todd Bowles an unwanted Baker Mayfield and an unproven Kyle Trask. Bowles pegged Mayfield as Tom Brady’s successor, ‘LFG’ became ‘LFB’ and the Bucs started out fast — 3-1, with a divisional win against the Saints, in New Orleans. Skeptics were hesitant to climb aboard and had their fire fueled when a promising 3-1 rapidly became a frustrating 4-7. Tampa Bay fans soured on Bowles and Mayfield proclaiming the coach to have “Lost the team!” and the quarterback to be “A bust!” The doubt was loud, near deafening. In the face of that criticism Bowles rallied his team, finishing the year 5-1, with his second consecutive NFC South crown.
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This time around, no Tom Brady meant no problem. The Bucs cruised through round one of the playoffs, decimating the Philadelphia Eagles and making Todd Bowles just the first Bucs’ head coach (not named Bruce Arians) to win a postseason game since 2002. Even though he successfully increased his win total and postseason success, while losing a Hall of Fame quarterback, without being able to spend money due to cap restrictions, Todd Bowles’ supporters seem to be few and far between. Statistically, Bowles has managed to do things few Bucs’ head coaches have and he has done them despite being dealt some unique and arguably challenging circumstances.
With Bowles, as is the case with any coach, there’s some things to like and some things to dislike. In the case of Bowles, the ‘dislikes’ are consistently shouted louder. Bowles still has plenty to prove as he prepares for his third year as the Bucs’ head coach — Quietly, however, he has already proven quite a bit.
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